Large will profoundly change the world, is never in doubt. But from a lot of the current discussion, everyone seems to be on the data using the border into mistakes, this article specifically to explore the data, what cannot do on a matter of principle.
Data and forecast
People try to predict the future, because such economic benefits would be very large, and as a result often see big data and the story box, sometimes, sometimes not.
Large data can be used to make predictions, but there are boundaries, and affecting key factors of this boundary is Soros, reflexivity often said. Reflexivity that are involved in thinking and the linkages between scenes and effects, cannot be independently with each other, knowledge and participate in the process of being changed forever (Baidu encyclopedia). Reflexivity has an impact on forecast, because it can lead to discontinuous change. OtterBox
This logic is easy to understand when things are continuously changing, you're easier to calculate its future status, such as cars, we need to know its speed, it is easier to predict its next position. But if it is a chaotic system full of mutations, which would be difficult to achieve, car would have to be good, suddenly fell off a plane in the sky, it does not appear in the estimation of the location, of course. So do predictions, the first point is that this system is not in a chaotic system, in a chaotic system of accident, predictions based on the data is invalid. And reflexivity is a key factor in causing chaos butterfly appears.
When we observe a system and to take action, observation and action of the system itself, we will change this is reflexivity. And when everyone is doing, that is observed and the operation of the system will become chaotic system. Financial markets have demonstrated this, if the data in the forecast is no boundary, that once you have the data regarding the use of clever, that no one in the financial markets will not lose money, but apparently this is not possible, most is the winning probability of different people.
Predictable and easy to predict the
If a reality depends more on some unchanging factors, such as a cultural tradition, a biological characteristic, it is real easy to be predicted if a reality depends more on factors that can be instantly changed, such as: the people's mood, and that this reality is not easy to predict, even unpredictable.
Specifically, retrieved after people get sick, and infectious diseases will spread, so Google that monitor outbreaks of infectious diseases and predict the possible spread of the path's data use is extremely effective. Reflexivity is not much here.
But no stock because you predicted, others predict, buyer's and seller's actions are not consistent, which would make the stock market a chaotic system. How to use data to predict domestic this stock go up?
Compared with the infectious and the stock market, movie box predictability in between. Is the necessity in support, such as basically a waste of film have good box office very hard, but the chance a big impact, you do not predict that poking into people's nerves, it has suddenly become a fire. Who can forecast the Thai embarrassing 1 billion at the box office? So in my judgment is on the box, no matter how large development, it is always in spirit is not the spirit of the State, because it is not a technical problem.
All told, reflexivity is bigger area is not easily predictable, whereas the projected large help.
Monitoring and prediction
Data in the forecasts must face their own boundaries, but on monitor no display on power of big data is much more far-reaching.
The data of our world is a certain degree of higher, when we are active in social networks is, in fact, is our process to keep data, our preferences, relationships, daily activities are continuously in the process of data, develops wearable devices, smart home, that data will be more.
My methodology in that series of articles in the Internet era has always adhered to the view:
The Internet is building a parallel like the matrix and the real world sense of space, and this sense of spatial data.
In theory, in this space, there is no such thing as lack of transparency, the barriers of space and time will no longer be blocking the flow of information. So whether you like it or not, everyone is becoming transparent in front of digital, which means that 100% can monitor.
Monitoring and prediction are the bridges between logic and intuition, intuition depends on individual talent talent, put aside not mentioned, mainly about the necessary logic. There is a certain logic in it there is a possibility, but not necessarily. It is difficult to understand, we'll look at an example:
Easier to focus when we talk about micro-letter to Zhang Xiaolong create skills is often easy to overlook Ma Huateng and Zhang Xiaolong is to create micro-letter combinations. According to publicly available reports, Tencent has many teams at the same time in the development of mobile IM, which inputs are likely to be based on "mobile Internet is the true Internet, Tencent must IM occupies a dominant position in the mobile Internet" hypothesis, in which Ma Huateng and so-called gray theory under the assumption, so many teams go hand in hand. If there is no such top-level design, I think more companies are more likely to be done on the mobile version of QQ micro-innovation, further out into the innovator's dilemma.
If the abstract point to break this example, so we can say that, on the development of mobile Internet is available from data perceptions, because as long as sufficient monitoring, you can perceive this trend at an early stage on the data. But judge mobile Internet is really eye pattern of Internet depend on the parties, further decided to also do micro-and mobile QQ is a consequence of the above logic. Decided to do app that point in time, pony and other bosses don't know it must come, otherwise people don't do some other things and concentrate on the app. But the app really is mobile Internet is the Internet really is an inevitable logic of a derivative, or is a consequence of predicting the future. This is the inevitable logic data, monitoring, and predicting relationships.
Concluding remarks
Big data is on the rise, but also consider it the best in the large data capacity boundaries or may at some point because it failed on suspects the data itself, this would be wasted. With the improvement of data, reflexivity may become increasingly important role, as a result, the world will become more and more like a chaotic system, in such a trend, believe that the mentioned monitoring combined with the inevitable logic should be helpful on how to use the data.
"The author" Li Zhiyong, zuomoshi (figure).
2264 votes
Millet bracelet OtterBox N4
Bracelet with millet millet's latest wearable device, with intelligent features such as alarm clock sleep monitoring.
View details of the voting >>
